Physical AI Brief

We study online probabilistic forecasting of binary outcomes chosen by an adaptive adversary. Given an online learning algorithm for a weak hypothesis class $H$, we would like to efficiently obtain two incomparable guarantees that existing online boosting techniques provide separately. Online gradient boosting competes in Brier score with the best predictor induced by the span of $H$ on every sequence, but promises nothing when the span does not contain an accurate predictor. Online weak-to-strong boosting drives classification error to zero under a weak-learning condition, but promises little when that condition fails. We give a simple defensive forecasting algorithm, the Defensive Booster, that obtains both guarantees. On every adaptive sequence, its Brier score is competitive with the best prediction induced by the span of $H$ at the same rate as online gradient boosting; simultaneously, whenever the realized transcript satisfies the smooth weak-learning condition, its Brier score and randomized classification error satisfy the same rate guarantee as online classification boosting. This is achieved by operationalizing the "dual view" of boosting: When the algorithm's randomized classification error is persistently high, its mistake weights form a smooth reweighting on which every weak hypothesis has low edge, yielding an ex-post hard-core certificate that the weak-learning condition fails. We also develop a strongly adaptive variant, which satisfies both guarantees on every time interval. The Defensive Booster is very efficient: it accesses just one weak-class learner, whereas the prior online boosting methods we compare against maintain large weak-learner ensembles. Experiments on synthetic and real data streams demonstrate its strong predictive performance (sometimes substantially improving over all prior baselines) coupled with orders-of-magnitude faster runtime.

Modern language models are trained on heterogeneous web-scale text corpora. Consequently, studying knowledge and skill acquisition is difficult, as prior exposure to related content is hard to characterize. To address this challenge, we introduce LITTLECURRICULUM, a curated 88B-token pretraining corpus tailored to U.S. elementary school material, explicitly excluding concepts, facts, and vocabulary taught above Grade 5. Training a 5B-parameter LLM from scratch on LITTLECURRICULUM yields LITTLELEARNER, a model with sufficient language competence for open-ended evaluation, yet with clear knowledge and capability boundaries mapped to interpretable curriculum guidelines. We release LITTLECURRICULUM and LITTLELEARNER as a developmentally restricted sandbox to study how models acquire, represent, and use data under a well-defined training scope. We illustrate the sandbox's utility in a first suite of experiments on injecting new knowledge through post-training and in-context learning. These methods let LITTLELEARNER better utilize existing knowledge, but do not raise out-of-scope capabilities. Our findings underscore the value of this controlled environment for future investigations.

Speculative decoding losslessly accelerates autoregressive language models by verifying multiple draft tokens in parallel. Diffusion-based drafters further reduce proposal latency by predicting an entire token block in parallel, but their position-wise distributions are marginal rather than conditioned on tokens selected along each draft path. Existing recurrent correction incorporates causal information along a single draft chain, whereas diffusion-based tree construction broadens candidate coverage without carrying this correction along individual branches. We introduce DARTree, a training-free speculative decoding method that extends a pretrained AR correction head from chains to trees. DARTree first constructs a fixed-width candidate tree by expanding and scoring all nodes at each depth in a single batch, and then only applies best-first pruning to select the verification tree, decoupling AR-head inference from sequential heap operations. Across seven math, code, and chat benchmarks, DARTree achieves the highest average acceptance length and speedup in all four model--temperature configurations, accepting up to 12.97 tokens per verification round, 98.6\% more than DFlash and 27.9\% more than Domino in the same setting, and reaching up to 9.73$\times$ lossless speedup over locally measured autoregressive decoding.

AI agents are increasingly used for programming, but do not provide any guarantee on the correctness of generated code. Verified code generation, in which an agent produces both an implementation and a machine-checked proof of its specification, offers a stronger path toward trustworthy AI-generated software. Existing benchmarks in this direction either focus on individual functions or only evaluate proof generation with provided implementations. It is still an open question whether agents can make coherent implementation and proof choices across real multi-module codebases. To bridge this gap, we introduce Vero, the first benchmark to evaluate joint implementation and proof synthesis at the repository level. Vero contains 43 multi-module instances sourced from real-world repositories spanning Python, Dafny, Verus, and Coq, and covering diverse domains from cryptographic protocols to distributed systems. Each instance consists of a multi-module Lean 4 repository with predetermined API interfaces, manually curated formal specifications, and reference implementations, supporting both proof-only and code-and-proof evaluation modes. To improve benchmark reliability, Vero also includes an audit mechanism where agents are allowed to formally prove unsatisfiability of provided specification or incorrectness of reference code, which surfaces and corrects latent code and specification errors during curation. We evaluate frontier coding-agent configurations with Lean toolchain access. The strongest agent fully solves only 27 of 43 instances and closes no specifications on the hardest repositories. Vero provides a concrete testbed for measuring progress toward repository-scale verified software synthesis, where current agents still fall short. We release the benchmark, curation pipeline, and evaluation harness at https://github.com/sunblaze-ucb/vero.

Many clinical prediction models treat post-intervention outcomes as a one-step mapping from baseline measurements to a future endpoint. However, recovery after a procedure often unfolds as an irregular trajectory: clinical observations, medication changes, repeat interventions, and physiological measurements are recorded asynchronously and can change risk assessment over time. We propose an intervention-aware clinical world model that represents each patient with a structured latent state and evolves it through time-ordered post-intervention events. The model first encodes baseline imaging into a 3D spatial latent state. It then updates this state using procedural context, static covariates, elapsed time, and peri-event physiological embeddings. Follow-up imaging provides training-only supervision through a latent forecasting objective. We apply the framework to atrial fibrillation ablation. During the 90-day recovery window, irregular post-procedure records provide clinically meaningful evidence for long-term recurrence risk. In repeated internal cross-validation on DECAAF-II, our model achieves AUROC 0.756 and AUPRC 0.777 for recurrence prediction. It also achieves a scar-extent MAE of 2.971 percentage points without requiring follow-up MRI intensities at inference. The learned state supports recurrence-risk queries at different horizons and retrospective input editing of blanking-period records.

Tabular-to-image methods have emerged as novel approaches to leverage the high predictive performance of convolutional neural networks and vision transformers. They convert tabular data into image representations, mapping each feature at a fixed pixel location derived from a dimensionality-reduction method (e.g., t-SNE, UMAP, PCA). However, they encode only the marginal value of each feature and discard information about feature relationships. We propose TabSOM, a tabular-to-image encoding built on the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), which provides: (i) a spatial layout in which every input feature occupies a fixed canvas position derived from its component plane via collision-free Hungarian assignment; and (ii) a graph that captures pairwise feature relationships derived from the SOM component planes. The resulting image stacks two multi-scale node channels: one encodes feature values at fixed scales, while the other encodes pairwise feature interactions as spatial connections between related features. Two SOM-derived interpretability approaches are introduced: a prototype-inspired partial dependence plot and a class--separation importance score. Benchmarked against twelve existing tabular-to-image methods across public binary-classification datasets, TabSOM ranks first or second on every dataset and achieves the lowest variance of any method evaluated. Interpretability obtained with TabSOM was validated against Random Forest, XGBoost, and SHAP, the class-separation score shows reasonable agreement with established baselines on the top-ranked features while capturing complementary structural information from input data. These results demonstrate that TabSOM provides an effective and interpretable approach for applying deep learning architectures to tabular data, bridging the performance--interpretability gap in this domain.

Machine learning procedures are commonly evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. However, their achievable performance is fundamentally constrained by structural properties of the underlying data-generating process, which are formalized in terms of informational bounds. In this work we examine intrinsic limits of data-driven decision systems from an information-theoretic and interaction-based perspective. We analyze minimal achievable error in classification through Fano-type bounds and precision limits in parametric estimation via the Cramér-Rao inequality, emphasizing that such limits depend on the underlying model rather than on algorithmic sophistication alone. We further discuss how implicit assumptions, such as independence, ergodicity, and distributional stability, affect the validity of inferential procedures. Building on interaction-based modeling principles, we review typical frameworks such as Markov Random Fields and potential based representations for encoding dependence mechanisms. We also describe decision systems, including LLM-integrated agent architectures, as feedback-driven stochastic processes where state-dependent dynamics may induce emergent macroscopic behavior. This perspective highlights the importance of having adequate models for the data as a prerequi- site for expanding predictive capability, and situates algorithmic learning within the informational limits imposed by the models.

Scientific discovery increasingly requires AI systems that can reason over scientific evidence of heterogeneous modalities, interact with scientific tools and environments, and sustain progress across long task horizons. We present Intern-S2-Preview, a series of scientific agentic foundation models designed to support multimodal scientific understanding, reasoning, generation, and long-horizon tasks. The training pipeline begins with scientific multimodal pre-training over rendered scientific documents, interleaved image-text data, and diverse scientific corpora. Starting from the pretrained checkpoint, we apply a unified post-training pipeline consisting of supervised fine-tuning, scalable multi-task reinforcement learning (RL), black- and white-box agentic RL, and on-policy distillation. This pipeline is supported by practical techniques that improve rollout and training stability and efficiency, including partial rollout with off-policy correction, adaptive length regularization, online speculative decoding, robust multi-task optimization, and trace-aware experience assembly for agentic tasks. At the architecture level, Intern-S2-Preview-397B extends time series modelling from efficient long-sequence understanding to numerical forecasting, while Memory Decoder is studied as a separate memory-augmented path for rapid scientific specialization without modifying the frozen 397B backbone. Evaluations across scientific, multimodal, agentic, and general-purpose benchmarks show that Intern-S2-Preview-397B achieves competitive or leading results in multiple settings. The time series modules improve scientific signal understanding and forecasting on SciTS, while the separate Intern-MemDec-4B extension improves the Biology-Instructions average score from 56.92 to 60.32 without modifying the frozen 397B backbone.

Efficiently retrieving relevant clips from large-scale driving logs is essential for data curation, model development, and safety analysis. Structured and rule-based retrieval systems can explicitly target driving events, but typically require expert-defined rules, auxiliary data, and multi-stage perception pipelines. Multimodal embedding models offer a simpler and more efficient alternative by representing each video with a single searchable vector. However, general-purpose models often rely on shortcuts from static scene context and struggle to distinguish motion-centric events, such as turning left versus right or accelerating versus decelerating. In this work, we study how to adapt a general-purpose multimodal embedding model to driving-video retrieval. We first fine-tune Qwen3-VL-Embedding on paired clips and reasoning traces from nuReasoning using an InfoNCE objective. While this stage substantially improves overall retrieval, caption supervision alone remains insufficient for fine-grained motion understanding. We therefore introduce TraVEL (Trajectory-Guided Video Embedding Learning), a motion-aware fine-tuning framework that uses ego-trajectory similarity as a reward within Group Relative Policy Optimization. Trajectories serve only as privileged training supervision; retrieval still operates on single-vector video embeddings without ego poses, expert rules, or auxiliary perception outputs. We further construct a driving-video retrieval benchmark from nuReasoning. Experiments show that TraVEL improves motion-centric retrieval across model scales: relative to SFT, it raises longitudinal and lateral mAP by 9.8 and 4.7 points at 2B, with corresponding gains of 7.2 and 1.5 points at 8B. TraVEL thus combines physically grounded supervision with efficient embedding-based search.

Modern image classification models excel when trained on single task-specific datasets but often struggle to generalize across domains and difficulty levels. We propose ARMDIL, an Adaptive Router for Multi-Domain Image classification with LLMs. ARMDIL is an ensemble that uses a multimodal large language model (MLLM) agent to dynamically route each image to the most suitable vision backbone. Our diverse ensemble employs convolutional neural networks (ResNets), self-supervised representation learners (SSL), and vision-language models (VLMs), each trained on a unified label space constructed from multiple image datasets with differing distributions and characteristics. Empirical evaluations illuminate the distinct capabilities and vulnerabilities of each architecture across disparate visual domains. Crucially, we show that ARMDIL effectively navigates these trade-offs, performing competitively with specialized training-based routers. Furthermore, it drastically improves adaptability by allowing new information to be integrated via simple prompt modifications, while enhancing interpretability through natural language reasoning traces. These advances in cross-dataset image classification pave the way for more reliable general-purpose vision systems such as AI assistants and autonomous robots.

Transformer-based language models achieve strong performance but incur substantial inference cost due to repeated high-dimensional matrix multiplications. We propose Reduced Matrix Multiplication (RMM), a training-free, input-adaptive inference method that reduces Transformer matrix products by selecting informative slices along their contraction dimensions, without modifying model weights. Under a simple retention-ratio control, RMM provides a smooth and predictable accuracy-efficiency trade-off. Across language models ranging from 1B to 70B parameters, we find that reduction tolerance depends on the model family, task, component, and retention ratio, although it often improves with model scale. Under moderate reduction, RMM remains robust across the evaluated discriminative, autoregressive generation, and long-context settings. We further show that the same principle extends to multimodal vision-language inference. Mechanistic ablations reveal a structural asymmetry within Transformers: attention-side computations are substantially more reducible than MLP components. Finally, wall-clock benchmarks with custom kernels on an NVIDIA A100 show that these computational savings can translate into practical runtime gains, especially at longer sequence lengths. Together, these results position RMM as a scalable direction for input-adaptive inference-time optimization.

Given a dataset where a portion of the samples are contaminated, our goal is to recover the underlying clean population distribution. To this end, we propose Wasserstein Filtering (WF), a novel sample selection framework that discards a fraction of suspicious samples and estimates the target distribution using the empirical measure of the remaining data. The core insight is to select a subset of samples whose empirical distribution maximizes its Wasserstein distance to the fully contaminated empirical distribution, thereby preferentially isolating and removing geometrically influential outliers. To render this optimization computationally tractable, we introduce three algorithms: a marginal screening scheme, SinkMarg, and two joint optimization algorithms, SinkWF and SlicedWF, leveraging entropic optimal transport and sliced Wasserstein approximations, respectively. On the theoretical front, we introduce the Far Exclusion and Local Projection (FELP) contamination model, which characterizes corruptions consisting of well-separated outliers and locally indistinguishable perturbations. Under this model, we prove that the WF estimator achieves minimax optimality over distribution families with bounded covariance. Extensive numerical experiments on synthetic datasets, benchmark anomaly detection suites, and robust generative learning with diffusion models demonstrate that WF serves as a highly practical, model-agnostic preprocessing tool. It delivers competitive outlier detection performance and provides substantial downstream benefits for generative modeling under heavy contamination.

Rotation-based post-training quantisation commonly applies an orthogonal transform across an entire attention head to reduce outlier-induced error. RoPE instead partitions each head into two-dimensional frequency pairs, raising the question of whether a transform respecting this decomposition can improve on full-head mixing. Prior work has established the per-pair rotations that commute with RoPE. We state the converse result that, for distinct frequencies, no other single-head orthogonal map commutes with RoPE. For the head-shared parameterisation used in our experiments, we then derive the rotation angle that minimises the larger channel variance under a pooled-covariance, position-averaged surrogate and verify that the implementation attains its analytic minimum. The evaluated head-shared pairwise configuration does not improve accuracy in the tested dynamic W4A4KV4 setting. Across four checkpoints, replacing the full-head Hadamard with this configuration increases perplexity at both short and long context lengths. Composing the pairwise rotation with the Hadamard satisfies the selected $\pm0.05$-PPL interval criterion under the default estimator. Estimating the shared angle from K alone improves pairwise-only on every checkpoint but does not close its gap to full-head mixing. The analytic objective controls a position-averaged second moment of a pooled calibration covariance, whereas the dynamic quantiser sets its step from a tokenwise group range. The pairwise transform also has only two-channel mixing support. Along a controlled interpolation from two-channel to full-head mixing, K range, relative quantisation error, and perplexity degradation decrease as support increases. These results show that optimality for a structured surrogate need not reduce quantisation error when the surrogate and mixing support are misaligned with the quantiser's scale-setting statistic.

The replicability of papers is a cornerstone of scientific knowledge, ensuring the reliability of existing results and providing a base for further experiments. The act of replication typically illuminates details that were previously underspecified, and thus requires similar hypothesis-driven exploration to open-ended research. In this work, we develop Replica, a scalable task space for paper replication. To provide reward signal, we introduce an auto-generated rubric-based judge that has low noise and agrees with human assessment of replication quality. We post-train Faraday, a 27B-parameter "AI Scientist" agent that leverages coding agents as tools, surpassing the performance of Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 on held-out replication tasks. Qualitative analysis of individual rollouts reveals that Faraday adopts a more scientifically-principled approach. We believe that our results provide a stepping stone towards AI agents capable of long-horizon scientific innovation without requiring complex harnesses.

We study a large language model (LLM) service in which a provider chooses a per-token price and a default reasoning-token allocation, while a user may accept the default, customize the allocation, or exit. Larger allocations can improve accuracy but increase token cost and latency. We model this interaction as a Stackelberg game and derive the user's unique optimal customized allocation in closed form. For any price, the acceptable defaults form either an empty set or a compact interval. We characterize the provider's optimal default through a three-regime rule, reduce equilibrium computation to a one-dimensional price optimization, and prove the existence of the equilibrium. We further show that defaults affect the implemented reasoning allocation only when users value the convenience of avoiding customization; otherwise, every service-providing outcome implements the user's optimal customized allocation. Experiments with two compact open-weight reasoning models on five mathematics and science benchmarks support the accuracy-token model and show how model and task characteristics determine equilibrium prices, defaults, and reasoning allocations.

Existing global optimization benchmark suites are of a moderate size and are based on a small number of analytical functions that date back even to the 1970s. This causes a risk of biasing the development of global optimization methods. We argue that the tasks related to the black-box adversarial attack (BBAA) can serve as valuable global optimization benchmark in many-dimensional space. We demonstrate the efficiency of several types of evolutionary algorithms and other metaheuristics in solving example BBAA problems. Thus, we take a step towards convergence of global optimization methods to the challenges and needs that arise in the modern machine learning field.

Motor imagery (MI) brain--computer interfaces (BCIs) have emerged as a promising approach for establishing flexible communication pathways between the human brain and external devices , particularly for individuals affected by stroke or neurodegenerative disorders. Reliable decoding of motor-imagery electroencephalography (MI-EEG) remains challenging because EEG recordings contain substantial noise and exhibit complex, weakly informative relationships with the underlying brain activity. Although deep learning provides an effective means of learning representations directly from EEG signals, its application to MI-EEG feature learning remains comparatively limited. This study introduces a hybrid deep-learning architecture that integrates a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a bidirectional long short-term memory (bi-LSTM) network. The CNN is used to learn high-level spatial and temporal representations directly from raw MI-EEG recordings, whereas the bi-LSTM models temporal dependencies and relationships among the extracted features. The proposed approach is evaluated using both a publicly available dataset and a privately acquired dataset obtained with an EEG acquisition system. The experimental results indicate that the CNN\&bi-LSTM architecture provides robust performance for both two- and three-class motor-imagery classification and demonstrates promising subject-independent decoding capability across the evaluated methods.

Existing vision-language model (VLM) benchmarks emphasize perception and reasoning accuracy (how well VLMs describe and reason about what they see in an image), with limited attention to behavioral reliability under uncertainty (how they behave when visual evidence is missing or misleading). We introduce SciFigBench, a diagnostic VLM benchmark for scientific figure understanding that jointly evaluates perception, reasoning, and behavioral reliability under uncertainty. It contains 250 figures with high-quality human annotations across three evaluation aspects, totaling 600+ hours of annotation effort. We further extend these figures via image transformations, reasoning questions, resistance probes, caption-bias probes, and confirmed selective-blur targets, producing over 34,000 evaluation setups for stress testing. We further propose the Admittance-Resistance-Inductance (A-R-I) framework to evaluate whether models acknowledge insufficient evidence, resist misleading context, and infer cautiously from partial information. Our results reveal substantial behavioral differences among models. GPT-5.2 achieves the highest description quality (MQM 91.6) with strong reasoning accuracy (78.4%), yet hallucinates unreadable content in 96% of cases, whereas Gemini 3.1 Pro, a comparably capable model (MQM 90.2, reasoning 81.0%), admits uncertainty in 71% of such cases and achieves the strongest resistance score (0.91). These findings show that high perception and reasoning accuracy alone do not guarantee behavioral reliability, a dimension critical for deployment in scientific workflows.

Accurate modeling and forecasting of power transformer thermal behavior are critical for reliability, asset lifetime, and optimized power system operation. Numerical approaches such as finite element methods (FEM) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) offer high fidelity but are computationally expensive, require complex mesh generation, and are often impractical for real-time or large-scale applications, particularly when transformer geometries are unknown. Lumped-parameter thermal models are more practical but depend on transformer-specific thermal constants and may fail to capture dynamic responses under varying operating and environmental conditions. Purely data-driven machine learning methods, including artificial neural networks, convolutional neural networks, and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, have shown success in forecasting transformer temperatures but typically require large volumes of high-quality training data and may produce physically inconsistent or uninterpretable results. This paper develops a physics-aware Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) framework for forecasting transformer thermal behavior from real-world time-series data. Neural ODEs model system dynamics in continuous time, providing smooth trajectory prediction and a natural representation of continuously evolving thermal dynamics. A key contribution is the integration of simplified heat-transfer equations directly into the Neural ODE formulation. The model is evaluated across datasets from fifteen transformers in different regions of Norway with varying designs and cooling mechanisms. The results demonstrate that the developed Neural ODE framework provides a standardized, physics-aware, and robust forecasting approach for heterogeneous transformer units.

As biomedical research increasingly relies on data-intensive tools, the quality and utility of datasets are critical. Challenges such as imbalances, biases, and ethical or legal constraints often limit access to high-quality data. Synthetic data generation can help overcome these limitations. Here, we present a comparative analysis of generative models for transcriptomic data, investigating strategies to incorporate prior biological knowledge via gene graphs. This ensures that synthetic data capture real-world gene patterns, maintaining their usefulness for downstream tasks. In particular, we introduce and benchmark three variants of the Generative Adversarial Network. Among the alternatives, MK-TGAN - an innovative multi-kernel, Graph Neural Network-based model - stands out for its performance in terms of both the realism and utility of the generated data. Unlike other methods, MK-TGAN leverages prior knowledge graphs by exploiting graph neural networks. Our results show that prior knowledge integration strategies improve performance, and that MK-TGAN consistently produces synthetic samples with superior realism and biological plausibility.

Agent harnesses combine retrieval, routing, state, provenance, and verification, but locally successful components may disagree on shared state. We model this failure with a finite \emph{capability sheaf}: stalks encode typed behavior signatures, restriction maps retain shared fields, and accepted runs are useful global sections. An exact finite constraint-satisfaction problem (CSP) defines acceptance, while a linearized relative cohomology class provides a diagnostic and search feature. A controlled experiment over 20 task clusters introduces hidden interior mediators whose raw states are nuisance variables. Quotienting their coboundaries reduces the candidate budget from 2,000 to 1,000 per cluster; aligning the hidden state removes the gap. Exact CSP matches the quotient, so the result demonstrates invariance to stale representatives, not superiority over exact reasoning. We then test the method on a discovery split from the SWE-bench Multilingual pool of PatchFuseBench: 160 issues from 20 repositories, 875 real candidate patches, 2,579 source-aware edit atoms, and 153 newly executed patches. A first pool-level construction is constant because $[b-Dx]=[b]$ in $\operatorname{coker}D$ and therefore cannot rank configurations. A candidate-indexed repair is nontrivial on 848/875 candidates and varies within 120/160 issues. It resolves 118 issues versus 116 for a matched noncohomological selector, but the difference is not supported across repositories (exact sign-flip $p=0.75$). A leave-one-repository-out abstention gate reaches 127/160, tying the strong anchor and exceeding its matched gate by one issue ($p=1.0$). The discovery gate therefore fails and the confirmatory split remains sealed. The study supports the controlled invariance mechanism and an identifiability correction, but not a real-world cohomological advantage.

Falls are a major health concern for older adults, and wearable sensors have been widely explored for detecting falls and enabling timely intervention. However, real-world falls are extremely rare: collecting 100 of them requires an estimated 100,000 days of monitoring, resulting in severely limited labelled data for training machine learning models. Consequently, many approaches rely on simulated datasets, often reporting high laboratory performance but limited real-world generalisation. We present a systematic evaluation of motion representations for wearable fall detection under real-world data scarcity. Using accelerometer signals, we compare interval-based, kernel-based, symbolic, and foundation model representations. As an interpretable baseline, we additionally investigate a lightweight symbolic representation that converts short motion segments into symbolic sentences augmented with physically-grounded impact descriptors. Experiments use FallAllD, a simulated falls dataset, and FARSEEING, a clinically verified real-world falls dataset. Through cross-validation, controlled data scarcity, and cross-dataset transfer, we examine how representation choices affect robustness under realistic deployment. Our results reveal that highly parameterised kernel and foundation models excel on simulated data but degrade severely under both data scarcity and domain shift. Although the interval-based representation achieves the strongest absolute real-world performance, augmenting a symbolic representation with physically-grounded impact descriptors yields the smallest degradation under domain shift and retains detection sensitivity under extreme scarcity, albeit at lower precision. These findings highlight the importance of evaluating beyond simulated benchmarks and show that representation choice is critical for deployable fall detection given the scarcity of real-world data.

When visual evidence is occluded or chaotic, models should abstain. In this paper, we show that Vision-Language Models (VLMs) can internally distinguish when abstention is required, but fail to express it anyway. We introduce TRAPSBench, a procedurally generated video benchmark of 1,404 matched physics pairs in which a single targeted change renders the outcome undeterminable from the visual evidence. Furthermore, we introduce Penalized Epistemic Calibration Score (PECS), a new robust metric that requires models to both answer correctly when the outcome is knowable, and abstain when the outcome is not. Across 16 VLMs spanning five families, spontaneous restraint is poor: the best PECS is 0.292. The bottleneck is expression, not perception: linear probes decode answerability from hidden states at up to 0.91 AUROC across physics domains; steering a single-layer void direction causally induces or suppresses abstention. Our results replicate across three open-weight families (Qwen, Gemma, LLaVA). The failure is also more pronounced in visual than textual uncertainty: models detect textual impossibility about 4x more readily than missing visual evidence. Closing this representation--output gap likely requires output-stage interventions.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) demonstrate exceptional performance in computer vision but suffer from large parameter counts and quadratic computational complexity, severely limiting their deployment on resource-constrained edge hardware. While recursive weight-sharing reduces parameter counts and token merging mitigates computational and memory bottlenecks, integrating these two paradigms without costly retraining is non-trivial, leaving this intersection largely unexplored. We propose MergeOver, a post-training approach that integrates Token Merging (ToMe) into the recursively weight-shared Sliced Recursive Transformer (SReT). Through an Unmerge tracking stack, constraint-safe merge-rate adjustment, and synchronised token-mass tracking across spatial permutations, MergeOver resolves the spatial and merging constraints of this integration. We further employ a stage-wise single-shot schedule that performs token reduction at the first block of each stage and maintains a fixed sequence length throughout its subsequent recursive iterations. Benchmarked on ImageNet-1K, our selected configuration reduces top-1 accuracy by 1.47 percentage points. On the GPU, it reduces peak activation memory by 37.3% and 38.4% at batch sizes 1 and 16, while throughput decreases by 21.7% at batch size 1 but increases by 21.7% at batch size 16. On a Raspberry Pi 5 (ARM CPU), it reduces latency by 2.4% and 17.6% at batch sizes 1 and 16. These results show that MergeOver can recover a meaningful part of the throughput and memory cost that recursive weight-sharing introduces, without retraining, and provides a baseline for combining token merging with hierarchical recursive transformers.

Machine learning theory studies learning procedures through mathematical setups in which the data model, training protocol, oracle access, loss, metric, and randomness define the phenomenon that a theorem is meant to explain. Solving an open problem therefore requires the problem formulation, theorem target, and proof mechanism to be developed in concert. Researchers formulate hypotheses, test them through preliminary theoretical or empirical analysis, and refine both assumptions and proofs. We investigate whether this process can be organized as an autonomous agentic workflow for ML theory research. We develop VALG, an agentic system that combines multi-level Verification, Adaptive formulation of Learning-theory problems, and Graph-structured proof development. Within each source-relative theorem branch, VALG maintains a fixed mathematical specification, checks the theorem-level composition of a typed proof-dependency graph, and constructs and reviews local proofs in dependency order. When a proof attempt fails, VALG identifies whether the obstruction lies in a derivation, the proof structure, or the theorem formulation and routes the next attempt accordingly. Formulation-level obstructions initiate an explicitly related variant or relaxation, preserving the mathematical relation between the resulting theorem and the source problem. We evaluate VALG on nine subproblems from five COLT 2026 open problems. Two runs produce internally finalized theorem candidates that match the scope of their source briefs; the remaining seven yield restricted-method results, special cases, or conditional theorems. These case studies show how VALG keeps source-scope matches, relaxations, conditional results, and blocked attempts mathematically distinct. VALG is open source at https://github.com/DechenZhang/VALG-ML-Theory-Agent.

Enabling agents to learn from experience and internalize it into their policy has become a central problem in self-evolving AI. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) offers an effective pathway by using a privileged self-teacher to provide dense supervision on the student's own trajectories; however, existing methods still rely heavily on designer-specified privileged artifacts (e.g., answers, feedback, skills, or trajectories), limiting the end-to-end learnability and scalability required for continual self-improvement. In this work, we introduce Latent On-Policy Self-Distillation (LOPD), which, rather than proposing another hand-crafted OPSD variant with a newly prescribed form of privileged context, makes the teacher's privileged context itself learnable end-to-end from experience. Technically, LOPD retrieves relevant experiences and composes them into continuous latent tokens that condition a self-teacher, while the student generates trajectories from the task and interaction history and receives dense token-level supervision at every visited prefix. We further introduce a privileged-margin objective to stabilize and regulate the learning of latent context. Empirically, LOPD demonstrates (I) strong performance, outperforming RLVR and representative OPSD methods including OPSD, SDPO, and Skill-SD across both agentic tool use and code generation; and (II) high learning efficiency, surpassing GRPO and Skill-SD with less than 30% of their rollout budget. Ablation studies further provide direct evidence that making privileged context learnable is necessary for realizing these gains. Together, these results position LOPD as a step toward a more scalable and self-directed paradigm for agent evolution.

Relational Deep Learning (RDL) models multi-tabular databases as temporal heterogeneous graphs to enable end-to-end representation learning. However, prevailing RDL evaluation practices rely on static, single-episode dataset snapshots, overlooking the continuous, time-evolving nature of real-world databases. Consequently, current RDL benchmarks fail to capture how model performance changes as new data accumulates over time. To address this limitation, we introduce an incremental, multi-episode evaluation and training paradigm to assess and improve the temporal robustness and adaptability of state-of-the-art RDL models. Using established large-scale datasets, we examine data evolution and model training dynamics, demonstrating that temporal concept drifts occur in the majority of predictive tasks. We present multiple incremental training regimes for fine-tuning the models and demonstrate that transfer learning is both feasible and highly effective in the RDL setting. Alongside a new temporal evaluation metric that prioritizes near-future accuracy, we show that our incrementally fine-tuned models consistently outperform the standard, expensive, from-scratch trained baselines.

Pretrained tabular foundation models have demonstrated strong predictive capability; however, their application to large-scale datasets remains constrained by the limited inference context. This paper introduces Balanced Adaptive Prototype Selection (BAPS), a framework for constructing compact, information-preserving contexts for scalable TabPFN inference. Without modifying or retraining the pretrained model, BAPS jointly preserves representative structure, informative decision boundaries, local density, class balance, and feature-space diversity. Experiments on the million-row HIGGS and SUSY datasets show that 512 prototypes retain strong predictive performance and reliable calibration, corresponding to an approximately 1,953-fold context compression. All experiments were conducted on an Intel Core i7 CPU with 16 GB RAM and no GPU acceleration. These findings establish effective context construction as a practical mechanism for extending pretrained tabular foundation models to million-scale datasets.

In this paper, we study how to perform statistical inference for quantile temporal difference learning (QTD) in distributional reinforcement learning. Assuming access to a generative model, we first establish functional central limit theorems for both synchronous and asynchronous QTD, which show that the averaged iterates of QTD converge weakly to a rescaled Brownian motion. We next provide online inference methods. Based on random scaling, the inference procedure constructs an asymptotically pivotal statistic for inference by using the information along the whole QTD path. Meanwhile, the proposed statistic can be computed online without storing the entire trajectory of QTD iterates. This substantially reduces the memory requirement and enables efficient statistical inference in distributional reinforcement learning.

Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) enables organizations holding complementary features of shared entities to collaborate and train models. In this setting, the initiator can withhold information about the learning task, while other contributors participate without exposing their local datasets, creating an asymmetric information structure aligned with growing privacy demands. However, this asymmetry is a double-edged sword. Among various threats, backdoor attacks are particularly concerning because VFL not only enables malicious contributors to poison the model during training, but also allows them to activate the backdoor at inference time to manipulate predictions. Although prior work has reported near-perfect attack success rates and proposed effective defenses, we find that most findings fail to hold under realistic conditions, exposing a fundamental gap between research and practice. In this paper, we present a systematic, practice-oriented study of backdoor vulnerabilities in VFL, revealing this gap in both methodological design and evaluation practices. We show that existing approaches overlook key practical constraints and therefore rely on unrealistic prior knowledge. Furthermore, these limitations have remained hidden due to poorly designed evaluation practices in the literature. To bridge this gap, we redefine threat models under realistic constraints, propose practical backdoor workflows, and introduce BVBench, a backdoor-centric benchmark that enables fair, practical, and comprehensive evaluation, preloaded with state-of-the-art baselines. BVBench provides strong evidence of the fragility of the current understanding of VFL backdoor risks and establishes a foundation for steering research toward uncovering practical vulnerabilities and developing more meaningful defenses.

Latent world models are judged by how well they predict, so when planning fails at long horizons the natural reading is that the predictor degrades. On a reproduction of LeWorldModel on TwoRoom we show the binding constraint is the planner's objective instead. The predictor is not the limit: its imagined state seventy-five environment steps ahead is still only 0.189 as wrong as assuming the world froze, while the planner never imagines beyond twenty-five. The objective is. Cross-entropy-method planning minimises squared latent distance, which tracks true distance at r = 0.426, saturates by about eighty arena units and decreases beyond a hundred and twenty, so moving away from the goal can lower the cost. The information is present throughout: a ridge probe recovers position from the frozen embedding at R^2 0.9922. The pathology is the method's, not one reimplementation's. It is present in the authors' released weights, and across four checkpoints long-horizon success rank-orders exactly with metric quality and inversely with prediction accuracy. Replacing only the objective, with nothing retrained and no GPU, lifts goals reached at offset 100 from 26.0% to 98.0%, equals the 98.0% at offset 25, and reaches 92.0% under a third of the budget: planning stops depending on the horizon. The best cost is not the most accurate. A head learned from frame separation alone predicts spatial distance worse than a position probe (r = 0.819 against 0.9897) yet plans better, charging 24% more to cross the environment's dividing wall where squared latent distance charges 4% less. It has learned reachability, not proximity.

Electrocardiography (ECG), photoplethysmography (PPG), and phonocardiography (PCG) provide complementary views of the same cardiac cycle, yet existing cardiac foundation models are trained for a single sensing modality, leaving the shared physiology across sensors unexploited. We introduce CardioState-JEPA, a cardiac foundation model to learn a single shared representation jointly across ECG, PPG, and PCG, built on a physiology-aware joint-embedding predictive architecture. The model maps heterogeneous waveforms into a common token space, processes them with a single shared Transformer encoder, and learns by predicting masked latent cardiac states, placing the pretraining target on shared physiology rather than sensor-specific waveform appearance. To handle the temporal offsets between electrical, mechanical, and hemodynamic events, cross-modal prediction uses a learned delay aligner that matches signals at the corresponding cardiac time. Because synchronized multi-sensor recordings are scarce, CardioState-JEPA first learns within-modality structure from abundant unimodal data and then uses paired data to align modalities in latent cardiac time. Evaluated as a frozen encoder across 25 downstream tasks spanning ECG, PPG, and PCG, our encoder improves average PPG classification by 8.2 AUROC points, PCG murmur detection by 18.8 AUROC points, and ECG classification by 15.5 AUROC points over the best self-supervised signal baseline and matches or exceeds cardiac models trained with privileged clinical text or supervised labels on several ECG benchmarks. These results establish that heterogeneous cardiac signals can mutually supervise a single foundation model of cardiac physiology.

Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) learn world models that predict in a compact latent space rather than in pixels, reducing the pressure to model nuisance appearance. Yet this provides no guarantee against visual perturbations: they can still alter the encoded representation and affect subsequent action-conditioned predictions. Bisimulation captures this requirement precisely: two observations should be treated as the same state only when their action-conditioned consequences agree. Guided by this criterion, we introduce Action-Conditioned Predictive Consistency (ACPC), a diagnostic that measures how far a clean history and a visually perturbed view of it diverge after being rolled forward under the same action sequence. We prove that this divergence bounds the perturbation-induced change in multi-step prediction error and planner cost. Building on pairwise ACPC, we define two complementary measures: the Invariance Radius (IR) summarizes clean-perturbed rollout spread, while the Separation Rate (SR) checks whether different states remain distinguishable after rollout. Experiments on four visual control tasks show that pairwise ACPC predicts perturbation-induced prediction and cost changes. On LeWM, the IR-SR screen transfers across tasks, and the joint diagnostic remains informative under blur and resize. PLDM exhibits similar diagnostic trends under a different architecture.

RNA-Protein Interactions (RPIs) are critical for regulating cellular functions. While traditional wet-lab experiments for RPI detection are costly and time-consuming, Deep Learning (DL) methods provide an efficient computational alternative for RPI Prediction (RPIP). In particular, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are promising, as they naturally model RPI networks. However, existing GNN-based methods often rely on homogeneous graphs or predefined meta-paths, which limit their ability to handle data sparsity and to generalize to cold-start scenarios involving unknown molecules. To address these limitations, we propose Edge Generation-guided Relation-aware Learning (EGRL), a novel framework with several key components: implicit meta-path learning to capture relational semantics without handcrafted paths; a multi-relation-aware attention mechanism for adaptive fusion of interaction patterns; a graph generator that predicts potential ("soft") edges to support cold-start nodes; and a multi-feature fusion predictor for final interaction scoring. EGRL is jointly trained with a primary task loss and an auxiliary generator loss. Comprehensive evaluations on four benchmark datasets demonstrate that EGRL achieves competitive overall performance. More importantly, it exhibits superior generalization in cold-start settings, achieving an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.867 and an Area Under the Precision-Recall curve (AUPR) of 0.861 on unknown molecules, corresponding to improvements of 8.6% in AUROC and 5.0% in AUPR over prior state-of-the-art methods. The code will be released soon.

Fractional partial differential equations describe nonlocal dynamics, but discovering them from noisy data is difficult because fractional differentiation amplifies high-frequency measurement noise and the derivative orders are unknown. We propose Weak-Pareto, which combines an adjoint-consistent weak formulation of fractional terms with Pareto-based subset selection over discrete term types and continuous fractional orders. For linear right-hand-side terms, the adjoint transfers fractional operators from measured fields to smooth test functions, replacing noise-sensitive pointwise differentiation with smoothing integration; for nonlinear terms, the noise-suppression effect is partial yet useful. Coefficients are fitted by ridge regression within a branch-aware differential-evolution search over the orders. The support size is then selected at the validation-error-complexity elbow. We show that the variance of fixed linear right-hand-side weak features vanishes under grid refinement, whereas noise amplification in pointwise fractional features increases with derivative order. Across fractional advection-diffusion, reaction-diffusion, and Burgers benchmarks, Weak-Pareto recovers parsimonious structures from clean and noisy measurements. In controlled advection-diffusion and Burgers comparisons, it retains the correct support at every tested multiplicative-noise level, whereas the unregularised strong-form counterpart largely fails once noise is introduced; this advantage persists under additive Gaussian noise. Ablations show that the weak library drives noise robustness and that continuous-order Pareto search avoids the support-selection failure of a dense fixed dictionary. On the advection-diffusion benchmark, Weak-Pareto yields more consistent operator recovery and substantially lower measured runtime than a contemporary neural baseline.

Plasticity loss has emerged as a critical challenge in continual learning that significantly hinders the acquisition of sequential tasks. While optimizing activation designs offers a potential solution, current fixed-form functions suffer from an inherent spectral bias towards low-frequency variations, whereas learnable variants permit unconstrained updates that induce catastrophic forgetting. To address these limitations, we propose a novel learnable wavelet activation that decomposes the activation function into low-frequency and high-frequency components to explicitly counter spectral bias. Furthermore, we employ dynamic wavelet injection to adaptively enhance plasticity for new tasks, alongside a regularization strategy to ensure the stability of previous learned knowledge. Theoretically, we provide rigorous mathematical guarantees for the proposed framework, proving the structural necessity of the hybrid wavelet architecture for efficient $L^2$ approximation and demonstrating that the decoupled learning rate mechanism successfully restores network plasticity for high-frequency information. Additionally, we provide a formal derivation of the loss-driven injection trigger mechanism to precisely guide the injection. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that our approach maintains superior trainability and generalization throughout the learning process and achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse continual learning benchmarks.

Public blockchain data enables large-scale DeFi-related analysis, but many existing approaches are application-specific, difficult to scale, or hard to interpret. This research proposes a scalable, application-agnostic framework for \emph{persistent behavioural pattern discovery} from large-scale blockchain activity. It constructs behaviour sentences enriched with contract, token and market context, then applies a two-step embedding process: sentence-level embeddings capture individual actions, while sequence-level embeddings capture user behaviour over time. An interpretable behavioural profiler characterizes discovered communities through behavioural motifs, routines, temporal dynamics, entity exposure, and suspiciousness evidence. Evaluation on Ethereum using over 30 million transactions shows that the framework uncovers both routine and malicious behavioural patterns, including decentralised exchange (DEX) trading, NFT activity, phishing, bot operations, oracle manipulation, and rug-pull schemes. Importantly, many patterns remain stable across independent observation windows, enabling the identification of long-term behaviours beyond a single analysis period. The proposed framework combines scalability, interpretability, and persistence analysis, supporting blockchain forensic investigation, behavioural attribution, and threat discovery.

Large language models (LLMs) remain vulnerable to harmful requests and jailbreak attacks. Parameter-efficient safety alignment methods based on prompt tuning typically rely on a single global prompt or externally selected prompt modules. Such static designs struggle to maintain a cross-category safety boundary while generating constructive responses tailored to specific risks and avoiding over-refusal of benign inputs. To address these limitations, we propose HiRoute, an input-adaptive hierarchical prompt-tuning framework that separates category-agnostic safety control from category-specific response guidance. HiRoute first trains a lightweight hierarchical router on representations extracted from a frozen LLM to jointly detect harmful intent and predict multi-label risk scores. It then freezes both the backbone model and the router and uses preference optimization with alternating gradient updates to learn a shared coarse-grained prompt and a set of fine-grained prompt experts as continuous embeddings. At inference time, benign inputs bypass the safety branch, whereas risky inputs are processed using the shared prompt together with a router-weighted mixture of risk-specific prompt experts. Experiments across three instruction-tuned models show that HiRoute achieves high safety rates across multiple safety benchmarks while preserving safe-response helpfulness, reducing over-refusal, and maintaining competitive performance on general-purpose tasks.

Access to clinical data is essential for developing reliable healthcare machine learning systems, but direct use of electronic health records is constrained by privacy regulation, institutional review, data-use agreements, and the risk of re-identification. Synthetic data promises a practical alternative: it can preserve useful statistical and clinical structure while reducing exposure of sensitive patient records. Prior studies often evaluate a single generator, one dataset, or a narrow downstream task, making it difficult to know when synthetic data can support model development and when it fails to preserve task-critical signal. We introduce CoMedBench, a reproducible benchmark that evaluates a family of generators under a common clinical-validity framework and one shared training and evaluation engine, spanning static tabular and temporal downstream tasks on established critical-care datasets. In total the benchmark spans 37 dataset-task pairs across two modalities consists of 20 static tabular and 17 temporal ICU time-series-drawn from seven public data sources: three intensive-care databases (MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV, and eICU) together with the UCI Machine Learning Repository, the CDC BRFSS diabetes cohort (2015), NHANES (1999-2014), and the pycox survival datasets (GBSG and METABRIC). The benchmark evaluates both statistical fidelity and task utility by comparing models trained and tested across real and synthetic data. In these settings, synthetic training data preserves most of the downstream signal: on tabular tasks the reference generator CoMed-CTGAN retains a mean AUROC utility (the synthetic-to-real performance ratio) of 90.6%, rising to 97.3% for the strongest generator, CoMed-TVAE. Temporal ICU tasks are harder and more generator-sensitive: CoMed-CTGAN retains 81.6% (AUROC) and only 64.0% under the imbalance-sensitive AUPRC, whereas CoMed-TVAE still retains ~95% (AUROC).

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation has long turned on one question, which pseudo-labels to trust, and a generation of selection rules, dynamic thresholds, per-class curricula, soft confidence weights, answered it for the noisy, under-confident ResNet teachers of their day. Self-supervised foundation encoders change the regime: with a DINOv2 teacher, confidence saturates, so the filtering that helped a weak teacher can hurt a strong one. We propose CW-BASS v2, a saturation-aware pseudo-label selection method that reads the teacher's confidence regime rather than committing to one rule. It pairs held-out calibration, an unbiased per-class noise estimate, with a self-adaptive confidence floor that provably bounds retention away from 1, and combines them in a one-pass gate: measure the reliability of the teacher's confident set, pi_kept = Pr[correct | c >= tau], on a held-out slice, and filter strictly when it meets the confidence demanded (pi_kept >= tau), falling back to the adaptive floor otherwise. The boundary is the pre-existing operating threshold, not a value tuned to mIoU, and across six DINOv2 teachers it makes the correct strict-vs-floor call blind. CW-BASS v2 thus recovers the UniMatch V2 operating point on the saturated benchmarks by selecting strict (Pascal VOC 1/8 87.4 against its reported 87.9; Cityscapes within 0.5), and improves on it where the confident set is unreliable (pi_kept ~ 89%, ADE20K), where the floor edges ahead (+1.5 mIoU, single seed). The gate is principled because the failure it avoids is measured, not assumed: on a reliable, saturated teacher the confidence distribution's dynamic range collapses (98% of Pascal pixels >= 0.95), so an adaptive cutoff floods the retention mask and self-training decays into confirmation bias.

We study decentralized multi-player reinforcement learning in episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) under three forms of information asymmetry: (A) unobserved actions with common rewards, (B) observed actions with independent rewards, and (C) unobserved actions with independent rewards. Players cannot communicate during learning but may agree on a protocol a priori. For Problems A and B we propose \texttt{mQ-learning} and \texttt{mQ-learning-intervals}, achieving $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{H^4 S A_{\text{joint}}\, T})$ regret, where $H$ is the horizon, $S$ the state count, $T = KH$ the total steps, and $A_{\text{joint}} = \prod_{i=1}^M |\mathcal{A}_i|$ the joint action space across $M$ players. For Problem C we give \texttt{mEXC} and \texttt{mEXC-Bellman}, two-phase explore-then-commit algorithms with regret $\tilde{O}(H (S A_{\text{joint}})^{1/3} T^{2/3})$. Against the centralized joint-action benchmark, decentralized learning under information asymmetry matches the single-agent Q-learning rate of \cite{jin2018q} up to logarithmic factors. Because $A_{\text{joint}}$ grows exponentially in $M$, the bounds are most meaningful for small $M$ or small per-player action sets.

Few-shot in-context learning (ICL) with multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) enables task adaptation without parameter updates, but its performance is highly sensitive to the quality and coverage of the selected demonstrations. While unlabeled multi-modal data is abundant, it remains elusive how to exploit them for ICL. We propose MAG (MAnifold-Guided semi-supervised in-context demonstra- tion selection), an efficient framework that leverages unlabeled data to improve multi-modal ICL. MAG formulates demonstration selection as a semi-supervised propagation problem on a multi-modal graph and adopts a two-stage strategy: (i) relevance score propagation identifies a compact set of high-impact unlabeled samples for pseudo-labeling, reducing MLLM inference cost; (ii) multi-modal relevance is used to select the final demonstrations. We show that textual represen- tations are more effective for relevance propagation, while both visual and textual modalities are crucial for high-quality demonstration selection. Experiments on eight multi-modal benchmarks demonstrate that MAG consistently outperforms strong baselines in label-scarce regimes, achieving significant gains with a limited pseudo-labeling budget.